As Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) moves aggressively to downsize the federal workforce, many comparisons are being drawn to previous attempts to streamline government—most notably under President Bill Clinton’s “Reinventing Government” initiative in the 1990s.
While Donald Trump and Musk are eager to reshape government in the name of efficiency, experts warn that history offers clear lessons: cuts made too quickly or without careful planning often backfire, creating more costs in the long run and sparking political blowback from the very voters they aim to satisfy.
Clinton’s “Reinventing Government” vs. Musk’s DOGE: Similar Goals, Different Strategies
In the 1990s, President Bill Clinton worked with Vice President Al Gore to make the federal government “smaller, better, and more efficient.” Over 420,000 federal employees left during Clinton’s eight years in office, largely through buyouts, attrition, and a small number of layoffs.
The initiative, though controversial, succeeded in shrinking the size of government without major disruptions to essential services.
By contrast, Musk’s approach under Trump’s DOGE initiative has been far more aggressive and chaotic, marked by:
- Immediate mass layoffs across agencies, including the Veterans Affairs, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
- A cut-first, ask-questions-later strategy that critics say ignores the essential missions of various agencies.
- A controversial directive for federal employees to justify their jobs through emailed lists of weekly accomplishments—or risk termination.
Elaine Kamarck, a former senior policy advisor to Gore, noted the key difference between Clinton’s and Musk’s approach:
“We took the time to understand the mission of the agency, and whether it was important or not. DOGE just cuts without asking if the agency’s mission matters.”
The Hidden Costs of Downsizing: Clinton’s Lessons Ignored
Though Clinton’s effort appeared to save around $146 billion, experts argue that many of the cost savings were illusory because:
- The government had to hire private contractors to fill roles left vacant by departing federal employees.
- Contractors often cost two to three times more than federal employees to perform the same tasks, according to the Project on Government Oversight (POGO).
- Critical expertise was lost as experienced civil servants left, while less-effective employees often remained.
John DiIulio, a politics professor at the University of Pennsylvania, summed it up:
“The real deep state is the contractor state.”
This is a mistake Musk’s aggressive layoffs under DOGE could repeat, potentially leading to even higher costs for taxpayers in the long run.
The Human Cost of Rapid Cuts: High Stakes for Public Services
Unlike the private sector, where downsizing may result in temporary disruptions, the stakes are much higher in government operations. Kamarck warned:
“People die. You fire air traffic controllers, and airplanes crash. You take down Medicare, and people go without life-saving drugs. Cut Social Security, and 69% of seniors have nothing else to live on.”
Already, reports suggest that DOGE’s cuts at HUD could destabilize the housing market by:
- Making mortgages harder to process, leading to delays in home buying and selling.
- Increasing housing costs, making it even harder for low-income Americans to find affordable homes.
Other essential services, like Social Security and Medicare, could soon face disruptions as staffing shortages hit critical operations.
Political Blowback: A Warning for Musk and Trump
Public sentiment toward DOGE is quickly souring. Polls show that approval ratings for the initiative are underwater, and Republican lawmakers have faced intense backlash from constituents at recent town halls.
Kamarck explained why this backlash could become a political nightmare for Trump’s administration:
“It’s in our DNA to want smaller government, but that belief dies quickly when specific services are cut.”
Americans may complain about the size of government in theory, but they strongly support the services they use, including:
- Social Security and Medicare
- Veterans’ benefits
- Tax refunds (even from the often-maligned IRS)
As 6,000 IRS workers were recently laid off, taxpayers may soon face delayed refunds—a scenario likely to spark public outrage.
“When people don’t get their refunds on time, who do you think they’ll get mad at?” Kamarck asked. “Trump and the Treasury Secretary.”
