This Tuesday, November 6, Americans will vote for members of Congress as well as positions in local offices in what will be one of the most consequential elections in recent years, as well as a referendum on President Trump. Here is a detailed look at some of the most intriguing races.
Some Possible Surprises:
New Jersey
Many pundits characterized this race as safe for the incumbent, Bob Menendez (D), although that turned out to be a foolish assumption. With his history of corruption charges and most recent scandal dealing with sexual assault, Senator Menendez faces a much tougher battle than the rest of his Northeastern Democratic colleagues.
The Republican candidate, Bob Hugin, has run a moderate, well-funded campaign; according to OpenSecrets, Hugin has spent nearly three times the amount Menendez has, with the majority of his $27,706,652 spent coming from his own wallet. Hugin has also wisely distanced himself from President Trump, who is unpopular in the state. However, there has not been a single poll showing Hugin ahead; the RealClearPolitics average puts Menendez up by 6.5 points, and the last four polls have ranged from Menendez +5 to Menendez +9.
Prediction: Bob Menendez wins by 4%.
Tennessee
This open seat race has proven itself to be competitive in the past. Phil Bredesen (D), a popular former governor of the state, led all polling up until August. Through August and September, both candidates led in polls, and since October 5, Marsha Blackburn (R) has led in all but one poll, according to RealClearPolitics. The average now shows Blackburn ahead by 6.8%. However, Bredesen, essentially a center-right politician, was able to attract moderate voters away from the more extreme Blackburn in earlier polling.
As governor, Bredesen won his 2006 reelection bid with 68.6% of the vote and did not lose a single county. Phil Bredesen’s popularity should not be underestimated, and his victory is not outside the realm of possibility. But it appears that Marsha Blackburn has either been able to call back the moderates that were originally thinking about voting for Bredesen or riled up the large conservative base in Tennessee.
Prediction: Marsha Blackburn wins by 5.5%.
The Closest Races:
Nevada
We’ll start off the closer races by looking at one of the two Sun Belt states where all factors point to a razor-thin victory. Senator Dean Heller (R) is running for his third term in the Senate and is challenged by Jacky Rosen (D), the current representative from Nevada’s 3rd District. Senator Heller has led in three of the last four polls compiled by RCP and has an average lead of 2%. However, there are multiple factors that suggest the race may go the other way.
Rosen has outraised Heller by about $7 million and outspent him by about $8 million (the Democrat outraising and outspending the Republican is a theme in this cycle). Early voting also shows that more Democratic ballots have been cast than Republican ballots, which is especially worrying for Republicans considering they typically lead early voting in close races.
Finally, polls overestimated President Trump in Nevada in 2016, giving him an average 0.8% lead in a state he lost by 2.4%. It is possible that polls are again over representing Republicans in this state.
Prediction: Jacky Rosen wins by 1.5%.
Arizona
This open seat race once seemed to be in the hands of Kyrsten Sinema (D), the Representative from Arizona’s 9th District, but the race has narrowed considerably since Martha McSally, the Representative from the 2nd District, cemented herself as the GOP nominee. This race turned uglier than most political races after videos surfaced of Sinema denouncing her state and warning others to keep their state from becoming like Arizona.
People have also brought up that Sinema was an avid far-left activist in her youth, but now portrays herself as a bipartisan centrist. McSally brought up these accusations during a debate, but many feel like she seemed unhinged and unprofessional while doing so. While polling gives Sinema a small 0.7% advantage, I believe the more moderate, likable candidate will emerge the winner in a red state.
Prediction: Martha McSally wins by 2%.
Missouri
Claire McCaskill, a Democrat with a middling approval rating in a red state, is in danger of losing her second reelection bid. One thing keeping her in the race is the relative weakness of her opponent, Josh Hawley (R), the state’s current Attorney General, who has was criticized for his handling of a scandal involving the former Republican Governor and does not elicit the high energy that is ideal for a candidate. This is in part demonstrated by fundraising figures; McCaskill has raised nearly $35 million, over three times the amount that Hawley has raised.
Despite this, Hawley has been able to unite the large Republican base in Missouri and leads the polling average by 2%. McCaskill may have turned off enough of her moderate base with her vote against Justice Kavanaugh and a recent video expose that showed one of McCaskill’s campaign officials implying that the campaign’s visions are more left-leaning than they are revealing to the public.
Prediction: Josh Hawley wins by 2.5%.
Florida
Over the summer and into the beginning of the fall, current Governor of Florida Rick Scott (R) was leading in most polls, and Florida seemed like the GOP’s most likely pick-up. However, more recent polling shows that Senator Bill Nelson (D) is ahead and will likely win reelection.
Nelson, a lifelong politician in the House and Senate and moderate, was likely boosted by Andrew Gillum winning the Democratic primary for governor. Gillum, the current mayor of Tallahassee, is a young, energetic candidate that shares much in common with Bernie Sanders.
While Governor Scott is somewhat popular in the state, Gillum’s energy should lead to a higher turnout for Democrats than if a candidate more similar to Nelson won the Democratic primary. Scott’s vote may also be dragged down by Ron DeSantis, the Republican nominee for governor, who has consistently trailed Gillum in polls and has been a controversial figure during the gubernatorial race.
Prediction: Bill Nelson wins by 3%.
Indiana
This is a solidly red state that also prefers pragmatic lawmakers over more radical ones, which explains Senator Joe Donnelly’s (D) ability to remain competitive in this race. Donnelly is leading Mike Braun (R) by 0.8% in polling and has tried to distance himself from more left-wing members of his party. He has also tied himself to Trump on issues such as immigration to highlight his bipartisanship.
Braun was a businessman before entering state politics in 2014 and brings the appeal of a problem-solving outsider to a state who voted for Trump by almost 20 points. There is an interesting feature in the polls that may shed some light on who will win this very tight race. In the last five polls compiled by RCP, Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton is included, and in polls where she is doing well (8%, 5%, and 7%), Donnelly leads by 3.7%. In polls where she is doing less well (two polls where she gets 3%), Braun leads by an average of 3.5%.
It is conventional wisdom that many people who say that they will vote for a third party candidate eventually vote for a candidate of one of the two main parties. Polls show that when Brenton gets a percentage that is more common for a third-party candidate, Braun does better, implying that most Brenton voters will break for Braun.
Prediction: Mike Braun wins by 1%.
Below is my final prediction for the 2018 midterms, ending with the Republicans gaining two seats in the Senate to end up with 53 seats. The Democrats will have 47 seats. The percentages for the colors is as follows:
Dark: Above 10% margin of victory
Medium: 5.1%-9.9%
Light: 2.1%-5%
Very light: 0.1%-2%
All polling data taken from realclearpolitics.com.
All campaign finance data taken from opensecrets.org.
Map tool from 270towin.com.
