When it comes to weather forecasting, Punxsutawney Phil might be the most famous groundhog, but a recent ranking shows he’s far from the most accurate. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a list grading various weather-predicting critters, and surprisingly, Phil landed near the bottom.
Punxsutawney Phil’s Poor Accuracy Rate
Punxsutawney Phil, the legendary groundhog from Pennsylvania, has been forecasting the arrival of spring since 1887. Every year on February 2nd, thousands gather to watch as Phil “predicts” the weather based on whether he sees his shadow. According to folklore, if Phil sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. No shadow? Expect an early spring.
However, when NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information ranked 19 weather-predicting animals based on their accuracy from 2005 to 2024, Phil came in 17th. His prediction accuracy rate was just 35%, making him less reliable than even some taxidermied animals. The only living creature Phil outperformed was Mojave Max, a tortoise from Nevada, who had an accuracy rate of 25%.
Who’s the Real Weather Expert? Meet Staten Island Chuck
While Phil’s reputation took a hit, another groundhog stole the spotlight. Staten Island Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, topped NOAA’s list with an impressive 85% accuracy rate. Chuck’s predictions are based on the same shadow-watching tradition, but his track record has proven far more reliable.
Despite his forecasting skills, Chuck has had some unpredictable moments. He once bit New York’s former Mayor Michael Bloomberg and had an infamous encounter with Mayor Bill de Blasio. Still, Chuck remains the most accurate weather-predicting groundhog, according to NOAA’s data.
Other Notable Weather-Predicting Critters
The list didn’t just feature groundhogs. It also included:
- General Beauregard Lee (Georgia) – 80% accuracy rate, ranked 2nd.
- Lander Lil (Wyoming) – 75% accuracy rate, ranked 3rd. Interestingly, Lander Lil isn’t even a living animal but still outperformed Phil.
- Taxidermied Groundhogs – Surprisingly, a trio of stuffed groundhogs ranked higher than Phil.
NOAA’s criteria for the list included:
- The animal must have been predicting weather for at least 20 years.
- They must still be active as of February 2, 2024.
- Their accuracy was measured using U.S. March temperature averages from 2005 to 2024.
Why Phil Is Still a Legend Despite Low Accuracy
Even with a low accuracy rate, Punxsutawney Phil remains a beloved figure. According to folklore, Phil has been predicting the arrival of spring for over 135 years, thanks to a magical elixir called “groundhog nog” that supposedly keeps him alive. His annual appearance at Gobbler’s Knob draws large crowds and media attention, making it more about tradition and fun than precise weather forecasting.
NOAA even acknowledged Phil’s cultural significance, stating, “Although he is not the most accurate seasonal prognosticator, we would be remiss not to honor the longest-running weather-forecasting groundhog in the United States.”
Mark your calendars for February 2, 2025, when Punxsutawney Phil will emerge once again to predict whether winter will continue or spring will come early. Despite his low accuracy, the event remains a cherished tradition, celebrating folklore, fun, and the hope for warmer days ahead.