The 2025 Academy Awards will take place on March 2, 2025, with Conan O’Brien hosting. As the biggest night in film approaches, major precursor awards like the BAFTAs and Writers Guild Awards (WGAs) have shaped the Oscars race, offering insights into potential winners.
While some categories seem locked in, others remain highly competitive, with frontrunners shifting based on recent awards results. Here’s a breakdown of the top Oscar categories and where each race stands.
8. Best Original Screenplay: ‘Anora’ vs. ‘A Real Pain’
- BAFTA Winner: A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
- WGA Winner: Anora (Sean Baker)
Both Anora and A Real Pain have been leading contenders throughout awards season. While Anora has the edge, The Substance—which won at the Critics’ Choice Awards—remains in the conversation.
Current Prediction: Anora remains the likely Oscar winner, but A Real Pain is still a strong competitor.
7. Best Adapted Screenplay: ‘Conclave’ Holds Its Lead
- BAFTA Winner: Conclave
- WGA Winner: Nickel Boys
While Conclave has won nearly every major precursor award, including the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, the WGA awarded Nickel Boys, shaking up the race.
Current Prediction: Conclave remains the frontrunner, but Nickel Boys is now a dark horse contender.
6. Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña’s Awards Sweep
- BAFTA Winner: Zoe Saldaña
- Golden Globe & Critics’ Choice Winner: Zoe Saldaña
With a near-perfect awards season record, Zoe Saldaña is in a strong position to win her first Oscar. The BAFTAs have correctly predicted the Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner in 7 of the past 10 years.
Current Prediction: Zoe Saldaña is the clear favorite.
5. Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin Leads the Race
- BAFTA Winner: Kieran Culkin
- Golden Globe & Critics’ Choice Winner: Kieran Culkin
Culkin has dominated the entire awards season, winning over 50 awards for his role in A Real Pain. While Guy Pearce and Edward Norton are strong contenders, Culkin remains the heavy favorite.
Current Prediction: Kieran Culkin is the overwhelming frontrunner.
4. Best Actor: Adrien Brody vs. Timothée Chalamet
- BAFTA Winner: Adrien Brody
- Golden Globe & Critics’ Choice Winner: Adrien Brody
The Best Actor race is now a head-to-head battle between Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). While Brody holds the lead with multiple major awards, Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan has earned widespread praise.
Current Prediction: Adrien Brody remains ahead, but Chalamet’s Oscar buzz is growing.
3. Best Actress: Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison
- BAFTA Winner: Mikey Madison
- Golden Globe & Critics’ Choice Winner: Demi Moore
This category is one of the tightest races at the Oscars. Demi Moore’s performance in The Substance has won several key awards, but Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win for Anora has kept the race alive.
Current Prediction: Too close to call. The SAG Awards could determine the final frontrunner.
2. Best Director: Brady Corbet Gains an Edge
- BAFTA Winner: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
- Golden Globe Winner: Brady Corbet
- Directors Guild of America (DGA) Winner: Sean Baker (Anora)
This two-person race is between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker. Historically, the BAFTA and Oscar winners have matched 7 out of the last 10 times, giving Corbet a slight edge over Baker.
Current Prediction: Brady Corbet has momentum, but Sean Baker still has a chance.
1. Best Picture: A Three-Way Battle
- BAFTA Winner: Conclave
- Golden Globe – Drama Winner: The Brutalist
- Golden Globe – Musical/Comedy Winner: Emilia Pérez
The Best Picture race remains highly competitive, with three leading contenders:
- Anora – One of the most critically acclaimed films of the year.
- The Brutalist – Won the Golden Globe for Best Drama.
- Conclave – Won Best Film at the BAFTAs, but its British appeal may not translate at the Oscars.
Current Prediction: Anora and The Brutalist are the frontrunners, but Conclave remains a serious contender.
