WASHINGTON, D.C. – The idea of sending $5,000 stimulus checks to American taxpayers from savings generated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, has gained attention in recent weeks. While President Donald Trump has expressed interest in the idea, experts warn it’s far from a done deal—and likely unrealistic.
The so-called “DOGE dividend” would theoretically distribute 20% of any savings from government spending cuts back to taxpayers. However, with DOGE’s $2 trillion savings target still far from being met, and opposition mounting from lawmakers and economists, don’t expect a check in your mailbox anytime soon.
Where Did the Idea for DOGE Stimulus Checks Come From?
The proposal for $5,000 checks originated from James Fishback, CEO of Azoria Partners and a self-described “anti-woke” investor. On February 14, Fishback suggested that:
- 20% of DOGE’s projected $2 trillion in savings should be returned to taxpayers.
- The remaining 80% would be used to pay down the national debt.
Fishback’s reasoning? Rewarding taxpayers for government savings would help restore trust in government and encourage citizens to report fraud and waste in their communities.
“American taxpayers deserve a DOGE dividend. It’s their money in the first place,” Fishback posted on X.
What Has Trump Said About the Proposal?
President Trump has been noncommittal but receptive to the idea. Speaking at the FII PRIORITY Summit in Miami Beach, Trump said:
- 20% of DOGE savings could go to American citizens.
- 20% would be allocated to paying down the $36 trillion national debt.
“I love it,” Trump said while aboard Air Force One. “It’s an incentive for taxpayers to report waste and fraud, and we’re considering it seriously.”
However, Trump also made it clear that any major decision would require broader support from Congress and economic advisors.
What Does Elon Musk Think?
Elon Musk, the unofficial leader of DOGE, responded positively to Fishback’s proposal on X:
“Will check with the President.”
Musk has also hinted that achieving $2 trillion in savings might not be feasible, noting earlier this year that even reaching $1 trillion would be a monumental achievement. So far, DOGE has reportedly saved around $16.5 billion, though earlier claims of $55 billion in savings were later corrected due to accounting errors.
Would Congress Need to Approve the Stimulus Checks?
Yes. Even if Trump and Musk support the plan, Congress would need to pass legislation to authorize such a payout.
- Past stimulus efforts, like the 2020 COVID-19 relief package, required bipartisan congressional approval.
- Any new stimulus plan would likely face opposition from fiscal conservatives, especially given the national debt crisis.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) dismissed the idea, stating:
“Politically, it would be great because everybody gets a check, but fiscal responsibility is our core principle. We should be paying down our national debt first.”
Would $5,000 DOGE Stimulus Checks Be Inflationary?
Economists are divided on whether such payments would fuel inflation:
Arguments For Increased Inflation:
- Judge Glock, director of research at the Manhattan Institute, said:
“It would increase the deficit, spur consumer spending, and worsen inflation.” - Jay Zagorsky of Boston University warned that pairing stimulus checks with Trump’s tariffs could drive up the cost of goods and services.
Arguments Against Inflation:
- Kevin Hassett, former Trump economic advisor, argued that returning unspent government funds wouldn’t be inflationary:
“If people save the checks, it could actually reduce inflation.”
Why Economists Say the DOGE Dividend Is Unlikely
Several economists believe the idea is unlikely to happen for a few key reasons:
- Unrealistic Savings Goal: DOGE is unlikely to meet its $2 trillion savings target. As of now, savings total only around $16.5 billion.
- Misreported Savings: Previous claims of savings have been marred by errors—like mistakenly reporting an $8 million contract cancellation as $8 billion.
- Lack of Congressional Support: Fiscal conservatives, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, have made it clear that debt reduction should take priority over issuing stimulus checks.
- Legal and Political Challenges: Legal opposition from state attorneys general and federal employee unions adds another layer of complexity.
Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, called the idea “ridiculous,” adding:
“There’s not enough money saved to make a meaningful difference for taxpayers.”
What Would Happen If DOGE Checks Were Issued?
If the DOGE dividend were somehow approved, it would likely follow similar eligibility criteria as previous stimulus efforts:
- Taxpayers who filed tax returns in the past two years could receive payments.
- Recipients of Social Security or veterans’ benefits could also qualify.
- There may be income thresholds, as with past stimulus payments.
However, with the current savings gap and political resistance, any checks issued would likely be much smaller than the proposed $5,000.
